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It is claimed that Britain's year-and-a-half long recession is set to draw to a close, after figures released this week showed manufacturing was at its most buoyant for two years in December. This is supported by upbeat news from the Retail sector with increased sales reported from John Lewis and Next.
Although official growth figures for the fourth quarter of 2009 are not expected to be published until the end of the month, the upbeat indicator was hailed by economists as pointing the way to the start of economic recovery.
Manufacturing activity, as measured by the Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply, reached 54.1 in December, the highest level recorded since November 2007.
There is growing optimism that when official statistics are published in late January, they will show that the UK economy grew by 0.4 per cent in the last quarter of the year, as Britain finally follows France and Germany out of the downturn.
However, few believe that either the economy generally or manufacturing in particular are heading for a rapid resurgence, with possible tax rises or sudden cuts in public spending feared after the general election
Manufacturing represents about 15 per cent of the UK economy, and the battered sector has been helped by a recovery in car production, an uptick in exports helped by softness in sterling, and an end to the rundown of stocks. In November, UK car output was ahead by 15.7 per cent, the first increase seen since September 2008.
Malcolm Barr, a JPMorgan economist, said: "Although monthly releases remain choppy, the key orders and output readings are starting to run at levels well above the long-run averages for this survey, consistent with a manufacturing sector which is contributing to an upswing in growth."
UK Chief Financial Officers (CFO) are looking to 2010 in a more confident mood than might have seemed likely a year ago, according to the findings of the latest quarterly Deloitte CFO Survey. Optimism about the financial prospects for CFOs' own businesses has risen to the highest level in more than two years.
However, the CFO Survey also strikes a clear note of caution with 48% of CFOs saying the economy is their greatest concern for 2010, with many citing fears of a "double dip" recession.
Two stories seem to be playing out. On the one hand, the degree of financial risk facing the corporate sector has fallen as the financial system has stabilised. On the other hand the outlook for the economy remains uncertain and fears of a “double dip” appear to be widespread.
Ian Stewart, Deloitte chief economist, commented: "The responses to the fourth quarter Survey suggest that the liquidity and funding crisis that gripped the UK corporate sector in early 2009 has eased. Action by the authorities, in the form of interest rate cuts and aid to the financial system, has played a major role along with decisive action by corporates themselves. Economic uncertainty persists, so the top priorities for CFOs in 2010 remain focused on reducing costs and increasing cash flow. This is a strong indication that CFOs anticipate a weak recovery. However, balance sheet and liquidity risks have reduced in the last year meaning corporates should be in a much stronger position to withstand any possible "double dip".
The price and availability of credit have gradually improved in the last year. But most CFOs continue to rate credit as hard to obtain and costly.
Recognising these issues and priorities, you will be pleased to know that Oracle Asset Finance is working with a growing number of businesses to provide increased funding through a range of solutions.
Call us today on 0845 949100 and talk to us about how Oracle Asset Finance can help your business in 2010.
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